BadCredit.org survey finds 79% of prediction-market users are losing money, half betting with borrowed funds

A new survey published in August 2026 by BadCredit.org puts hard numbers on the cost of the prediction-market boom: 79% of users on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt are losing money, and 51% are funding their bets with borrowed money^[1]. The survey covered 1,000 U.S. adults and was prompted directly by the rapid growth of those three platforms and ongoing regulatory conversations around them^[1].

The loss picture is worse for borrowers

The BadCredit.org data separates two groups - those who bet with their own money and those who borrow to bet - and the gap between them is stark.

• Among users who borrowed to fund bets, 88% lost money^[1]
• Among non-borrowers, the loss rate was 69%^[1]
• 53% of respondents said they joined prediction-market platforms to make money, nearly twice the 27% who cited entertainment or curiosity^[1]

"Borrowing money to place a bet is a universally bad idea," said Erica Sandberg, consumer finance expert at BadCredit.org. "Credit products aren't designed for this purpose."^[1]

The gender split is also notable. Men were nearly three times more likely than women to have used a prediction-market platform (24% versus 9%), and more likely to believe the platforms could improve their financial situation (37% versus 25%)^[1].

The structural problem: a thin layer of winners

The BadCredit.org findings sit alongside a Wall Street Journal analysis of platform data that found a similarly lopsided distribution of outcomes. On Polymarket, out of more than 2 million users, fewer than 2,000 accounts took home 67% of all profits. At Kalshi, a company spokeswoman said unprofitable users outnumber profitable ones by nearly three to one.

The volume flowing through these platforms has grown sharply. Betting on prediction markets skyrocketed from $1.8 billion in April 2025 to $24.2 billion in April 2026. That growth has drawn in a new cohort of retail participants who are systematically outgunned: casual traders "have no chance," one former professional poker player and statistician told the WSJ - a trader who places 60 trades a minute and modifies bids and asks 30 times a second.

Regulation is still catching up

Regulation remains unsettled in 2026, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pursuing new rulemaking and enforcement questions around event contracts, insider trading, and the line between derivatives and gambling. In early 2026, the commission proposed a rule that would require prediction markets offering swaps or futures contracts to the general public to register with and be overseen by the CFTC. The rule is not yet finalised.

The combination of rapid retail growth, concentrated profits, and a high rate of borrowed-money participation is the dynamic regulators will need to address. Whether the CFTC's proposed registration framework moves quickly enough to change the loss profile for ordinary users is the number to watch.